Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett leads Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. by five points in a new poll of New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, which includes Cherry Hill.

The StimSight Research survey, commissioned by InsiderNJ and reported by NJ Spotlight News on Sept. 18, puts Bennett at 47% and Kean at 42% among likely voters. The gap falls within the poll's 4.7 percentage-point margin of error.

Pollster Patrick Murray, owner of StimSight Research, said the deeper numbers matter more than the top line. Kean's job approval sits at 37% favorable and 55% unfavorable, while about three in 10 voters have not yet formed an opinion of Bennett.

"Democrats are starting with a significantly more enthusiasm," Murray told NJ Spotlight News. He added that even if Republicans close the gap, they face more ground to make up than in prior elections.

Murray said undecided voters and those leaning toward Bennett tend to be less affluent, focused on grocery prices and household costs. Voters who sat out the 2024 election lean Democratic, he said, and their return to the polls helps explain Bennett's current edge.

Kean, 57, is seeking a third term after winning reelection in 2024 by about five points. He was absent from Congress for more than 16 weeks while being treated for depression, returning with a House floor speech on June 30. He has not held an in-person town hall since taking office in January 2023, according to NJ Spotlight News.

Bennett, 39, is a former Navy helicopter pilot who worked in the healthcare industry. She has not held elected office. NJ Spotlight News reported she was once a registered Republican who said she switched parties after Donald Trump came to power.

The race is drawing national money. The New York Times reported that MAGA Inc., the Trump-backed super PAC, plans to spend $3.3 million in the district, according to Politico NJ. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has added Bennett to its Red to Blue program, which targets seats for flipping.

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved its rating of the race from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic" around Sept. 17, citing Kean's absence from Congress. Decision Desk HQ went further, upgrading Bennett to "likely" winner with a 76% win probability.

In an Aug. 27 interview with Politico, Bennett said voters told her they were frustrated Kean was "not showing up, he's not present, he's not hearing directly from people."

Kean's campaign had not publicly commented on the poll as of Sept. 20.

Kean and Bennett are scheduled to debate Sept. 27 at an event sponsored by NJ Globe and Rider University. Election Day is Nov. 3.